Ivory Coast sees strong exports of cocoa main crop as El Nino looms over output

ABIDJAN/LONDON — Ivory Coast has sold approximately 1 million metric tons of cocoa in export contracts for the 2026–27 main crop. However, the West African nation has begun slowing down sales due to growing concerns over how a looming El Niño weather pattern might impact overall output, four sources told Reuters.

The Abidjan-based Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) has also raised its premium on further sales from zero to at least £100 ($135) per ton above the futures price LCCc2, according to two industry sources and two CCC sources.

The strategic moves by the world's largest cocoa producer signal firming demand for the chocolate ingredient, pointing toward an expected tighter market when the new season officially begins on September 1.

"We have already sold between 950,000 and 1 million tons for next season, but we preferred to slow down and be cautious. We are selling less and less," one of the CCC sources stated.

Two Europe-based sources — a senior cocoa trading executive at a global agri-commodities firm and the head of a small- to medium-sized trading company — noted that CCC forward sales were rumored to be around 1.1 million to 1.2 million tons, and they confirmed the higher premium.

"The market is allowing them to be a bit more aggressive. They don't need to lower the [premium] to get contracts in the book," said the head of the small- to medium-sized trading firm.

El Niño Threatens Future Output

The El Niño weather pattern threatens to bring severe drought to major West African cocoa producers, including Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, which could heavily disrupt regional output.

"In truth, we are observing a certain fragility in the development of the mid-crop and therefore in the next main crop. It was very hot between January and May, and the rains of the past few weeks cannot make up for everything," a CCC source explained. "If El Niño intervenes as predicted in June and July, it will be difficult."

Exporters interviewed by Reuters were split on whether the CCC's decision to curb sales is justified. Four exporters argued that El Niño would have no significant impact on production, while two others backed the CCC's cautious approach.

Fertilizer Shortages and Aging Farms

Instead of weather patterns, most exporters emphasized that the biggest risk to next year's harvest stems from poor plantation maintenance and an acute need for fertilizers. Many Ivorian farms are aging and increasingly affected by crop diseases.

"I don't see El Niño as a threat to production. The real concern is the lack of fertilizers and treatments. It's a shame the CCC is refusing to sell when there's good demand," said the head of an Abidjan-based export company.

Global fertilizer prices have surged dramatically following the war involving Iran, which disrupted trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital shipping route controlled by Iran that handles roughly a third of the world's fertilizer trade.

-Reporting by Ange Aboa and May Angel. Editing by Robbie Corey-Boulet and Mark Potter/Reuters