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Japan's core inflation likely stayed above the 2% target in November, with moderating food prices easing consumer pressure ahead of a Bank of Japan rate hike expected next week.

Japan's core inflation likely held at 3.0% in November - Reuters poll

Japan's core inflation likely stayed above the 2% target in November, with moderating food prices easing consumer pressure ahead of a Bank of Japan rate hike expected next week.

December 12, 2025

Kantaro Komiya/Reuters

Japan's core inflation stays above 3% in November as easing food prices offset energy costs ahead of expected Bank of Japan rate hike.

Reuters

Japan's core inflation rate likely held well above the central bank's 2% target in November, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, although moderating food price hikes have taken some pressure off consumers ahead of an expected rate hike next week.


The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which includes energy items but excludes fresh food prices, was expected to have risen 3.0% in November from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of the 18 economists polled.


The rate would be the same as in October, after a 2.9% rise in September and a 2.7% increase in August.


Analysts pointed to easing food price inflation offsetting an uptick in energy bills because of the end of the government's summer-time utility subsidies.


Core inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for more than 3.5 years. The central bank is likely to raise interest rates at its December 18-19 meeting, sources have told Reuters.


Most economists expect the BOJ to hike the short-term interest rate to 0.75% from current 0.5% next week, polls have found.


The government will announce the November CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on December 19 (2330 GMT on December 18), just hours before the BOJ's decision.

-Kantaro Komiya/Reuters

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