Japan weather bureau says 60% chance of El Nino in summer

Japan’s weather bureau warns of a 60% chance of El Niño this summer, following balanced odds in spring. The climate phenomenon could bring significant changes to global weather patterns.

Reuters

10 February 2026 at 06:26:07

Japan weather bureau says 60% chance of El Nino in summer

A man walks on a street covered with heavy snow in Nagaoka, Japan, February 7, 2026.

Manami Yamada/Reuters

There is a 60% chance of the El Nino phenomenon occurring in the summer, Japan's weather bureau said on Tuesday.

In the spring, there is a 50% likelihood of El Nino occurring and a 50% chance of normal conditions continuing, the bureau said.

El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. The La Nina phenomenon is characterised by colder-than-usual ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region and is linked to floods and drought.

-Reporting by Anton Bridge; Editing by Sonia Cheema/Reuters