Senior Ukrainian commander sees imminent 'turning point' in war

KHARKIV REGION, Ukraine — Ukraine has a six-month window to seize the battlefield initiative from Russia and strengthen its position for future peace talks, a senior Ukrainian commander told Reuters, predicting a “turning point” in the war after more than four years of fighting.

Russian forces have made gradual gains since launching their full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but their advances have slowed this year. Ukrainian troops have increasingly pressed counterattacks in an effort to push Russian units back and regain territory.

Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, commander of Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, said he believes Russian forces are becoming exhausted and are no longer capable of achieving major breakthroughs on the battlefield.

If Ukraine can sustain operational momentum over the coming months, he said, it could regain the initiative along key sections of the front line and force Russia to reconsider its objectives in the remaining parts of the Donetsk region that Moscow has been unable to capture.

“I believe the next six to nine months are a turning point,” Biletsky said in an interview at an undisclosed underground location in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region. “More precisely, I think the next six are the most critical.”

The status of Donetsk remains a central issue in stalled U.S.-backed peace negotiations. Russia has demanded full control of the region, while Ukraine has refused to withdraw from areas it continues to hold.

“We need to identify directions where we can improve our positions, seize strategic points, and then negotiate with Russia from a position of strength — not weakness — for a truly stable truce,” Biletsky said. “From a military point of view, this is realistic.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly vowed victory in Ukraine and said this month he believes the war is approaching its end.

In recent months, Russian advances have been complicated by shifting battlefield conditions, including Ukraine’s expanded use of drone warfare and long-range strikes targeting Russian military infrastructure and energy facilities. Kyiv has also increased pressure on Russian air defenses and logistics networks, enabling deeper strikes inside Russian territory.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that Ukrainian forces had retaken nearly 600 square kilometers of territory in 2026, a figure Reuters could not independently verify. Russia currently occupies nearly one-fifth of Ukraine.

Military analysts say fatigue is increasingly affecting Russian forces, while Ukraine continues to face significant manpower constraints.

“It does seem like, four or five months into this year, it’s much more likely that the Russians will get exhausted before the Ukrainian problems come to a breaking point,” said John Helin of Finland-based Black Bird Group.

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said this week that Ukrainian forces are now “actively challenging the positional character of the war” and could soon be capable of conducting limited mechanized assaults.

Heavy fighting continues in eastern Ukraine’s so-called “Fortress Belt,” a chain of fortified cities that form the backbone of Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces have been pushing toward the strategic city of Kostiantynivka, located at the southern edge of the defensive line.

Control of the Fortress Belt would give Russian forces a potential pathway to threaten wider areas of the Donbas region.

Biletsky said his forces are holding positions along the northern flank near Sloviansk, forcing Russian troops into costly frontal assaults that have resulted in heavy casualties and the loss of experienced field commanders.

“The lack of personnel no longer allows them to advance the way they did a year ago,” he said, describing what he called a broader degradation of Russian battlefield effectiveness.

He added that while it is still too early to draw firm conclusions from recent Ukrainian gains, continued pressure through mid-range strikes and careful advances could allow Kyiv to build on its momentum.

Biletsky also said Russia has suffered disruptions in battlefield communications, while Ukraine and Russia remain relatively balanced in technological adaptation. He noted Ukraine’s lead in unmanned ground vehicles and heavy bomber drones, while Russia has advanced in the use of fiber-optic drones that are resistant to electronic jamming.

He described his corps as a model for Ukraine’s evolving military strategy, integrating advanced technologies and reducing reliance on infantry through increased use of unmanned systems. According to Biletsky, the goal is to have such systems account for up to 30% of battlefield operations by 2027.

He said the next phase of the war will involve more “creative” combined-arms operations supported by robotics and drones, allowing commanders to preserve manpower while increasing operational flexibility.

“It will happen this year, and I think we’ll show how our corps is a vivid example of it,” he said. -Editing by Timothy Heritage/Reuters