Vietnam's next leadership taking shape as January congress nears

Senior officials of Vietnam's ruling Communist Party concluded a two-day plenum in Hanoi on Tuesday, finalising decisions on candidates for the country's next top leadership, party chief To Lam said, but no names were released.

Lam is viewed as the leading contender to keep the country's most powerful post, but in line with standard practices in the secretive country, announcements are expected only at the five-yearly party congress scheduled for January 19-25.

Lam said delegates "voted with a high level of support" for nominees to key positions, according to his closing speech published on the party's website.

He added that officials agreed to continue public administration reforms and accelerate infrastructure expansion — policies he championed during his initial, brief term as party chief.

The announcement, alongside speculation about Lam's confirmation, propelled Vietnam's stock market close to a new high on Tuesday morning, as investors cheered political stability.

LAM SEEKS NEW TERM

Since succeeding the late Nguyen Phu Trong in July 2024 after heading for years the powerful security ministry, Lam has led sweeping administrative and economic changes that have drawn both strong support and criticism.

While outcomes remain uncertain, the rapid pace has underscored his assertive style, and signalled to internal rivals and foreign investors that he intended to push ahead with an ambitious agenda.

His reappointment was taken for granted at the start of this year, with many officials speculating he may also try to merge his post with the state presidency, following in the footsteps of China's Xi Jinping.

However, lacklustre results from trade talks with the United States, which imposed 20% tariffs on Vietnam in August despite multiple earlier concessions from Hanoi, may have tempered that ambition - for now.

SCRAMBLE FOR TOP JOBS

Speculation intensified in Hanoi on Tuesday as officials, diplomats, and citizens debated potential leadership combinations, often citing social media chatter.

The posts in play span the so‑called five pillars: general secretary, president, prime minister, parliament chair, and the newly upgraded standing member of the party's secretariat.

Although age limits exist, exemptions have been granted before.

Two main factions are seen dominating: one aligned with Lam and the public security ministry; the other tied to the military and its corporate network, including telecom and defence giant Viettel.

A list that excludes defence figures from top roles would be a surprise.

Army General Luong Cuong is the current president and could remain, or be replaced by defence minister Phan Van Giang, according to several officials. Decisions, however, rest with a small circle of senior leaders, and even current contenders could be dropped at the congress.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, a former security officer known as a skilled operator, has weathered multiple reshuffles and may do so again, though rivals are circling.

Names floated for the prime minister job include former central bank chief Le Minh Hung, police general Luong Tam Quang, and deputy prime minister Nguyen Hoa Binh.

Final allocations may also weigh candidates' home provinces to preserve a veneer of geographic balance, though leaders from the north have historically outnumbered those from the south.

-Khanh Vu and Phuong Nguye/Reuters