Spain and Portugal are experiencing a surge in late spring and summer flight and hotel bookings as millions of travellers steer away from war-affected destinations and hubs in and around the Middle East, industry data show.

Summer flight bookings to Spain, including transit, soared 32% year-on-year as of April 2, while hotel searches rose 28%, according to digital travel marketing platform Sojern. Portugal recorded a 21% rise in flight bookings, with hotel searches up 16%.

Travel data firm Mabrian noted a pullback from Middle Eastern destinations last month and an uptick for the southern Mediterranean, with Spain, which rivals France as the world's most visited country, the main beneficiary of the shift.

In contrast, the eastern Mediterranean, including European Union member Cyprus where a drone struck a British air base on March 2, has been hit by a wave of cancellations, highlighting the broader fallout from the Iran war.

Spain's industry group Exceltur has nudged up its projections since the conflict started on February 28, a modest upgrade that is still important at a time when inflation, geopolitical and economic concerns are curbing consumer spending and discouraging some travel.

"Summer holidays are planned months in advance. As destinations that attract large numbers of tourists are affected by the conflict, a significant part of this safe-haven effect is already materialising in purchases and bookings to Spain," Exceltur Vice President Oscar Perelli said.

Sylvia Weiler, Sojern's general manager for global destinations, added: "Travellers are adapting rather than retreating."

GROWTH OUTLOOK UPGRADED

Up to 181 million tourists visit the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean annually. Spain alone received a record 97 million last year.

Exceltur last week forecast Spain's tourism activity would grow 2.5% in real terms this year to 227 billion euros ($267 billion) up from a previous 2.4% projection and last year's 2.1% expansion.

It estimates diverted tourists could generate an additional 4.2 billion euros to that industry total this year.

The sector, a cornerstone of the economy that has helped Spain outpace most European peers in the past few years, is expected to expand faster than overall economic growth, which is forecast at 2.3%.

Spain's main hotel association Cehat expects room occupancy rates to rise by up to 3% this summer.

CAUTIOUS VIEW GIVEN RISKS

"Tourists are choosing destinations farther from Mediterranean conflict zones, such as the Canary Islands, for their summer family holidays," said Cehat President Jorge Marichal, warning however that gains could be offset by a reduction in overall travel.

Airlines are boosting capacity, with nearly 6% more seats available in April than a year ago, according to the official tourism agency Turespaña, with the strongest increases on flights from the United States and Britain.

However, higher jet fuel prices and further disruptions for long-haul travellers at Middle Eastern transit hubs could curtail the gains, Exceltur cautioned.

Cehat's Marichal was more blunt: "It will all depend on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, because all these forecasts could go out the window." The strait, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas exports transit, has been all-but-shut during the Iran war.

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Spain attracts travellers' interest as safe haven amid conflict in Middle East https://reut.rs/41F7u0R

-Reporting by Corina Pons; Editing by Andrei Khalip and Emelia Sithole-Matarise/Reuters