'Trump has no guts': Analysts doubt Iran tariff threat as US-China rift looms

Analysts on Tuesday (January 13) doubted the credibility of U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on nations trading with Iran, with one expert calling it a bluff aimed at Beijing, Tehran's main econoic ally.

“Trump is, again, bluffing, and China will call the bluff. I can assure you that Trump has no guts to impose the extra 25% tariffs on China,” professor and Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University Wu Xinbo told Reuters.

“If Donald Trump really carries through with this kind of 25% tariff on Chinese products, and China will certainly retaliate,” Wu said, noting that the U.S. leader’s planned visit to China in April could also be at risk.

Iran became a major flashpoint in U.S.-China ties during Trump's first term in the White House, as Washington tightened sanctions on the Islamic Republic and put China's Huawei, accused of selling technology to the country, in its cross-hairs. The arrest of its founder's daughter in Canada at the U.S.'s request sparked bitter recriminations that lingered over the remainder of that administration.

With Iran in his sights once again, a fresh 25% duty would see Chinese shipments to the U.S. incurring levies exceeding 70%, higher than the effective 57.5% tariffs in place before the two leaders struck a deal in October to de-escalate their trade war.

It remains unclear which countries with Iranian business links Trump might target, and he has not named China. The U.S. president has also made offhand remarks that threatened to upend U.S. foreign policy without acting on them before.

Days into the New Year, the U.S. captured Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro. The raid took place hours after Maduro and China's Special Envoy for Latin America had toasted their ties, analysts said.

Maduro was produced in a New York court to face drug charges and Trump met U.S. oil company bosses to discuss Venezuela's oil industry.

Venezuela is one of China's "all-weather" strategic partners while Iran is a lower-ranking "comprehensive strategic partner" in China's diplomatic lexicon.

"China is China, not a small country that Trump can push around. So I think, we don't worry about this kind of (tariff) threat," Wu said.

Production: Nicoco Cha/Reuters