EXPLAINER: Five reasons why Japan's election is the most unpredictable in years

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called a snap lower house election on February 8, which analysts say is shaping as one of the most unpredictable contests in years.

Here are five reasons why:

POPULARITY GAP

Since becoming Japan's first female prime minister in October, Takaichi has won strong approval ratings. Despite a slip ahead of the election, several polls still put her support rate above 60%.

Backing for her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), however, trails far behind at about 35%, fuelling doubts whether Takaichi's personal appeal will translate into votes for LDP candidates contesting the 465 seats at stake.

UNRELIABLE YOUTH VOTE

Polling shows Takaichi's strongest backing comes from younger voters rather than the older generations that have long formed the LDP’s electoral backbone. Recent surveys put her approval rating among voters under 30 more than 20 points higher than among those in their 70s.

But younger Japanese tend to vote far less than their older peers. For example, in the October 2024 lower house election in Tokyo, the capital, just 36% of those aged 21 to 24 voted, versus 71% of those aged 70 to 74.

COALITION SPLIT

For the first time in 26 years, the LDP is fighting a national election without former coalition partner Komeito, a party linked to the lay Buddhist Soka Gakkai movement, which says it has at least 8 million members in Japan.

Komeito's vote mobilisation has delivered dozens of seats to the LDP in past elections, particularly in urban areas. This time, it has joined the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan in a centrist bloc, potentially redirecting millions of votes away from the LDP.

FAR-RIGHT CHALLENGE

The slate of as many as 190 candidates fielded by the far-right Sanseito party is the third largest in the fray, as the party looks to add to the two seats it has now.

Sanseito has targeted conservative LDP voters with pledges to toughen immigration and tackle rising prices. Its push follows a breakout performance in July's upper house election when it bled support from the LDP to win 14 seats.

WINTER GAMBLE

Takaichi's mid-winter scheduling of the election breaks with a convention of polls held in milder months, particularly in autumn.

This is only the third February lower house election in the post-war era and the first since 1990. Heavy snowfall blanketing northern Japan could depress turnout and disrupt campaigning, particularly in rural areas, adding uncertainty in an already volatile race.

-Tim Kelly/Reuters