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FACTBOX: Southeast Asian bloc faces challenges from Myanmar to South China Sea

ASEAN grapples with Myanmar’s contested elections, decades-long South China Sea disputes, and ongoing Thailand-Cambodia border tensions as the Philippines pushes to advance regional stability.

Reuters

January 29, 2026

Malaysia's Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohamad Hasan, Myanmar's Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Hau Khan Sum, Thailand's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sihasak Phuangketkeow, East Timor's Foreign Minister Bendito dos Santos Freitas, Vietnam's Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung, Philippines' Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro, Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, Brunei's Second Minister of Foreign Affairs Erywan Yusof, Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Prak Sokhonn, Indonesia's Foreign Minister Sugiono, Laos' Foreign Minister Thongsavanh Phomvihane, and ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn pose for a group photo during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers' Retreat in Cebu City, Philippines, January 29, 2026.

Jam Sta Rosa/Reuters

The 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose foreign ministers met in the Philippines this week, faces a complex regional agenda, including:


MYANMAR


Myanmar's long‑running conflict remains one of ASEAN's most difficult and divisive issues. It recently completed elections, which are expected to hand a landslide victory to a military-backed party, but ASEAN as a bloc has not endorsed the vote.


While Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro noted that some member states view the elections as "something positive," she emphasised this was not an expression of support, merely an acknowledgement that some governments see opportunities emerging.


ASEAN has barred Myanmar's military rulers since 2022 and did not as a bloc endorse the election, which the opposition did not participate in.


Lazaro stressed that ASEAN’s engagement with Myanmar continues to be anchored in the 2021 five-point peace plan agreed with the junta leader after a coup.


SOUTH CHINA SEA CODE OF CONDUCT


Negotiations on an ASEAN‑China Code of Conduct in the South China Sea have dragged on for over two decades, but the Philippines, as 2026 chair, is pushing to inject momentum.


China's extensive maritime claims overlap with the exclusive economic zones of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, making a functional code essential to preventing escalation and managing incidents at sea.


Lazaro said ASEAN ministers "welcome the positive momentum" in negotiations and that the Philippines will endeavour to speed them up and conclude the code this year.


She emphasised the code must be based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and must be legally binding to effectively address disputes.


THAILAND–CAMBODIA BORDER DISPUTE


The long-running border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia remains a sensitive issue for ASEAN.


The previous chair of ASEAN, Malaysia, oversaw several rounds of ceasefire negotiations after renewed fighting along the border last year, when clashes, airstrikes and landmine blasts caused scores of casualties and mass displacement.


Lazaro said the current ceasefire is fragile but holding, and ASEAN is relieved that skirmishes have not escalated.


As chair, the Philippines will serve as coordinator for the ASEAN Observer Team, tasked with monitoring the ceasefire.


-Karen Lema/Reuters

The 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose foreign ministers met in the Philippines this week, faces a complex regional agenda, including:


MYANMAR


Myanmar's long‑running conflict remains one of ASEAN's most difficult and divisive issues. It recently completed elections, which are expected to hand a landslide victory to a military-backed party, but ASEAN as a bloc has not endorsed the vote.


While Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro noted that some member states view the elections as "something positive," she emphasised this was not an expression of support, merely an acknowledgement that some governments see opportunities emerging.


ASEAN has barred Myanmar's military rulers since 2022 and did not as a bloc endorse the election, which the opposition did not participate in.


Lazaro stressed that ASEAN’s engagement with Myanmar continues to be anchored in the 2021 five-point peace plan agreed with the junta leader after a coup.


SOUTH CHINA SEA CODE OF CONDUCT


Negotiations on an ASEAN‑China Code of Conduct in the South China Sea have dragged on for over two decades, but the Philippines, as 2026 chair, is pushing to inject momentum.


China's extensive maritime claims overlap with the exclusive economic zones of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, making a functional code essential to preventing escalation and managing incidents at sea.


Lazaro said ASEAN ministers "welcome the positive momentum" in negotiations and that the Philippines will endeavour to speed them up and conclude the code this year.


She emphasised the code must be based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and must be legally binding to effectively address disputes.


THAILAND–CAMBODIA BORDER DISPUTE


The long-running border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia remains a sensitive issue for ASEAN.


The previous chair of ASEAN, Malaysia, oversaw several rounds of ceasefire negotiations after renewed fighting along the border last year, when clashes, airstrikes and landmine blasts caused scores of casualties and mass displacement.


Lazaro said the current ceasefire is fragile but holding, and ASEAN is relieved that skirmishes have not escalated.


As chair, the Philippines will serve as coordinator for the ASEAN Observer Team, tasked with monitoring the ceasefire.


-Karen Lema/Reuters

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