Shipping group Maersk MAERSKb.CObeat first-quarter profit forecasts on Thursday (7 May) but kept its full-year earnings guidance unchanged, warning the Iran war had clouded the outlook for freight rates and costs.

Maersk, which is often seen as a bellwether for global trade, still projects global container volume growth of between 2% and 4% this year but cautioned that the situation remained volatile.

"The outlook for global container demand in 2026 is highly uncertain. Higher energy prices and constraints on trade in the Upper Gulf region, which in 2025 accounted for around 6% of global container trade, pose downside risks to the growth momentum," the company said in a statement.

Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) for the January-March period came in at $1.73 billion, compared to a median forecast of $1.66 billion in a company-provided poll of 10 analysts but well below the $2.71 billion for the same period a year ago.

The first quarter does not capture the Middle East war's full impact on global supply chains as the conflict began on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran.

The war has disrupted shipping routes across the region after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, pushing up costs such as fuel.

Maersk said freight rates fell during the quarter due to continued capacity oversupply before rising sharply toward the end of the period following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East.

Some analysts have warned, however, that the war could weigh on Maersk's earnings, as freight rates on the Asia-Europe route have nearly returned to pre-war levels while fuel costs remain elevated.

-Enrique Flores, David O'Sullivan/Reuters