China expects El Nino weather effects to peak in autumn and winter

BEIJING — China expects El Niño weather patterns to peak this autumn and winter before weakening next spring, China's National Climate Center announced on Friday.

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have officially entered an El Niño state. The phenomenon is projected to develop into a moderate or high-intensity event through the summer and autumn, according to Gao Rong, deputy director of the Climate Center.

"The probability of strong El Niño events is increasing, and it is expected to weaken next spring," Gao told reporters.

A Period of Rapid Development

El Niño is a natural weather pattern linked to the warming of the central and eastern Pacific, which typically brings heavier rainfall to the Pacific coast of the Americas. In the Western Pacific, however, this shift can severely disrupt the East Asian monsoon—raising the odds of flooding in southern China and triggering droughts in other Chinese regions.

Gao noted that El Niño is currently experiencing a period of rapid development, with the atmosphere responding significantly to these shifts in sea temperature.

This behavior is likely to increase precipitation south of the Yangtze River, while temperatures across most of China are expected to track higher than usual. In May, the national average temperature reached 16.9 degrees Celsius (62.42 degrees Fahrenheit), which is 0.6°C higher than the historical average for the same period.

The increased autumn rainfall in China's southern regions poses a direct threat to agriculture, raising the risk of disruption to the late-season rice harvest. Furthermore, warmer-than-usual winter conditions could reduce the available water supplies needed for next year's spring plowing.

Power Grids Brace for Unprecedented Demand

The shifting weather has already put immense strain on energy infrastructure. China's Southern Power Grid reported on Friday that since the start of the year, its entire network—including the provinces and regions of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan—has hit new peak power loads more than 20 times.

This surge breaks the traditional seasonal pattern observed from 2020 to 2025, where annual peaks were strictly concentrated in June and July.

With the national peak load predicted to hit 1,600 gigawatts this summer—an increase of 90 gigawatts from last year—the pressure on the grid is unprecedented, according to Sharon Feng, a special advisor at the Beijing-based consulting firm Azure International.

Feng added that the El Niño cycle makes hydropower highly unreliable for the summer peak.

"With high LNG prices, gas-fired power generation faces significant economic headwinds," Feng said. "If wind and solar curtailment is not improved, coal-fired units will unfortunately be the reliable and cost-effective option for providing critical peaking capacity."

-Reporting by the Beijing newsroom and Colleen Howe; Writing by Farah Master; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Stephen Coates, and Jan Harvey/Reuters