Global temperatures to reach near-record highs in next five years -report

GENEVA — Average global temperatures are expected to remain at near-record levels over the next five years, with the Arctic warming significantly faster than the global average, according to a new report from the U.N. weather agency and the United Kingdom’s Met Office released on Thursday.

The annual climate outlook, produced in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization, provides regional forecasts for temperature and rainfall patterns. It projects that global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.

“There is very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature is continuing to rise,” said Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, in an interview with Reuters.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to limiting the long-term rise in global temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to cap the increase at 1.5°C—beyond which the risk of severe and frequent climate extremes rises sharply.

2024 Record Warmth Likely to Be Surpassed

The report found it is very likely that global mean near-surface temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.

It also projects that at least one year in that period will surpass 2024, which is currently the warmest year on record after global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.

Seabrook emphasized that temporarily crossing the 1.5°C threshold does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed, as the target refers to long-term averages over decades rather than single-year spikes. However, she warned that as global temperatures approach that limit, overshoots are becoming increasingly frequent.

“The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly,” she said.

Arctic Warming and Extreme Weather Risks

The report highlights accelerated warming in the Arctic, where winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are projected to rise at more than 3.5 times the global average. By 2030, Arctic temperatures could reach about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline.

Sea ice is also expected to continue declining, with projections indicating seasonal melting in parts of the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk during March over the next five years.

Scientists warn that rapid Arctic warming could disrupt global weather systems, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events, particularly in northern regions.

The report also forecasts wetter-than-average conditions across much of the Northern Hemisphere during winter over the next five years, including wetter periods in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia, and the Sahel during May to September. In contrast, drier-than-normal conditions are expected in the Amazon during the same period.

El Niño Could Drive Additional Warming

The outlook also points to a potential strong El Niño event developing in winter, which could persist into 2027.

El Niño events are known to temporarily raise global temperatures by warming ocean surfaces in the Pacific, often amplifying heat extremes and influencing rainfall patterns worldwide.

Researchers caution that if the anticipated El Niño develops as projected, it could contribute to additional near-term temperature spikes, increasing the likelihood of breaking global heat records in the coming years. -Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin; Editing by David Holmes/Reuters